The Impact of Individual Expertise and Public Information on Group Decision-Making

In this open-access-book the author concludes that expertise could be the key factor for global and interconnected problems. Experimental results have shown that expertise was a stronger predictor than public information regarding change in behavior and strategy adaption. Identifying non-routine problem-solving experts by efficient online assessments could lead to less volatile system performance, from which all decision-makers could potentially profit

The Impact of Individual Expertise and Public Information on Group Decision-Making

In this open-access-book the author concludes that expertise could be the key factor for global and interconnected problems. Experimental results have shown that expertise was a stronger predictor than public information regarding change in behavior and strategy adaption. Identifying non-routine problem-solving experts by efficient online assessments could lead to less volatile system performance, from which all decision-makers could potentially profit

Non-Markovian quantum state diffusion for absorption spectra of molecular aggregates

In many molecular systems one encounters the situation where electronic excitations couple to a quasi-continuum of phonon modes. That continuum may be highly structured e.g. due to some weakly damped high frequency modes. To handle such a situation, an approach combining the non-Markovian quantum state diffusion (NMQSD) description of open quantum systems with an efficient but abstract approximation was recently applied to calculate energy transfer and absorption spectra of molecular aggregates [Roden, Eisfeld, Wolff, Strunz, PRL 103 (2009) 058301]. To explore the validity of the used approximation for such complicated systems, in the present work we compare the calculated (approximative) absorption spectra with exact results. These are obtained from the method of pseudomodes, which we show to be capable of determining the exact spectra for small aggregates and a few pseudomodes. It turns out that in the cases considered, the results of the two approaches mostly agree quite well. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are discussed

Quantum trajectories for Brownian motion

We present the stochastic Schroedinger equation for the dynamics of a quantum particle coupled to a high temperature environment and apply it the dynamics of a driven, damped, nonlinear quantum oscillator. Apart from an initial slip on the environmental memory time scale, in the mean, our result recovers the solution of the known non-Lindblad quantum Brownian motion master equation. A remarkable feature of our approach is its localization property: individual quantum trajectories remain localized wave packets for all times, even for the classically chaotic system considered here, the localization being stronger the smaller $\hbar$.Comment: 4 pages, 3 eps figure

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity

Electronic and phononic properties of the chalcopyrite CuGaS2

The availability of ab initio electronic calculations and the concomitant techniques for deriving the corresponding lattice dynamics have been profusely used for calculating thermodynamic and vibrational properties of semiconductors, as well as their dependence on isotopic masses. The latter have been compared with experimental data for elemental and binary semiconductors with different isotopic compositions. Here we present theoretical and experimental data for several vibronic and thermodynamic properties of CuGa2, a canonical ternary semiconductor of the chalcopyrite family. Among these properties are the lattice parameters, the phonon dispersion relations and densities of states (projected on the Cu, Ga, and S constituents), the specific heat and the volume thermal expansion coefficient. The calculations were performed with the ABINIT and VASP codes within the LDA approximation for exchange and correlation and the results are compared with data obtained on samples with the natural isotope composition for Cu, Ga and S, as well as for isotope enriched samples.Comment: 9 pages, 8 Figures, submitted to Phys. Rev

Fidelity and Purity Decay in Weakly Coupled Composite Systems

We study the stability of unitary quantum dynamics of composite systems (for example: central system + environment) with respect to weak interaction between the two parts. Unified theoretical formalism is applied to study different physical situations: (i) coherence of a forward evolution as measured by purity of the reduced density matrix, (ii) stability of time evolution with respect to small coupling between subsystems, and (iii) Loschmidt echo measuring dynamical irreversibility. Stability has been measured either by fidelity of pure states of a composite system, or by the so-called reduced fidelity of reduced density matrices within a subsystem. Rigorous inequality among fidelity, reduced-fidelity and purity is proved and a linear response theory is developed expressing these three quantities in terms of time correlation functions of the generator of interaction. The qualitatively different cases of regular (integrable) or mixing (chaotic in the classical limit) dynamics in each of the subsystems are discussed in detail. Theoretical results are demonstrated and confirmed in a numerical example of two coupled kicked tops.Comment: 21 pages, 12 eps figure

Stochastic Schroedinger Equations with General Complex Gaussian Noises

Within the framework of stochastic Schroedinger equations, we show that the correspondence between statevector equations and ensemble equations is infinitely many to one, and we discuss the consequences. We also generalize the results of [Phys. Lett. A 224, p. 25 (1996)] to the case of more general complex Gaussian noises and analyze the two important cases of purely real and purely imaginary stochastic processes.Comment: 5 pages, LaTeX. To appear on Phys. Rev.

Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale

Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. <br><br> Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. <br><br> The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support

Comparison of Stochastic Methods for the Variability Assessment of Technology Parameters

This paper provides and compares two alternative solutions for the simulation of cables and interconnects with the inclusion of the effects of parameter uncertainties, namely the Polynomial Chaos (PC) method and the Response Surface Modeling (RSM). The problem formulation applies to the telegraphers equations with stochastic coefficients. According to PC, the solution requires an expansion of the unknown parameters in terms of orthogonal polynomials of random variables. On the contrary, RSM is based on a least-square polynomial fitting of the system response. The proposed methods offer accuracy and improved efficiency in computing the parameter variability effects on system responses with respect to the conventional Monte Carlo approach. These approaches are validated by means of the application to the stochastic analysis of a commercial multiconductor flat cable. This analysis allows us to highlight the respective advantages and disadvantages of the presented method